Caked and baked
Heat deepens drought; forecast rain won't be enough
By Andy Mead
David Perry | Staff
Water receded from the banks at the Owsley Fork Reservoir near Berea. The reservoir, the largest from which they city draws water, is down 71/2 feet, and water-use restrictions are in place. Photo by David Perry | Staff
The calendar said it was the first full day of autumn, but the thermometer screamed summer.
The temperature in Lexington climbed to 93 yesterday, breaking a record for the date set in 1941 (Sunday's 92 tied a 1937 record).
There usually are only 20 days a year in which the temperature reaches 90 in Lexington. This year's count: 44. The record: 85 back in 1936.
The late September heat accentuated the other meteorological standout this year: drought.
At the end of a Bluegrass Water Supply Commission meeting in Georgetown yesterday, commissioners around the table talked about their water systems. Most had restrictions in place or were near that point.
Among the worst-off was Berea, which uses three reservoirs to supply the town and parts of southern Madison and eastern Garrard counties. All are down between 31/2 feet and 91/2 feet, said Donald Blackburn, the town's utility manager. Owsley Fork Reservoir, the largest, is down 71/2 feet. Most outdoor water use is banned, and customers must reduce overall use or pay higher rates.
There's rain in the forecast this week: 40 percent after midnight tonight, 50 percent on Wednesday.
It surely won't be enough, and might not even be in the right place. Tom Priddy, a meteorologist with the University of Kentucky Agricultural Weather Center, said some models suggest the rain could fall mostly west and north of Lexington.
Bill Caldwell of the state Division of Water said the rain is most needed in Eastern Kentucky, because it's dry there and because the Kentucky River, which provides drinking water to Central Kentucky, starts there.
The state's Bluegrass Region, which includes Lexington, moved deeper into extreme territory on the weekly Palmer Drought Severity Index. Eastern Kentucky also moved deeper into extreme drought, and was joined by Western Kentucky.
Of the last eight weeks of summer, only one did not see above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall.
The Kentucky River continues to shrink. The flow into the pool from which Lexington gets its water fell Monday to 78 cubic feet per second, or a little more than 50 million gallons a day.
On Sunday, Kentucky American Water pulled more than 52 million gallons from that pool.
The company's customers, 90 percent of whom live in Lexington, already are on restrictions that allow outdoor water use only on certain days during specified hours.
Linda Bridwell, the company's managing engineer, said Kentucky American officials plan to hold a conference call Wednesday with state officials and representatives of Lexington Mayor Jim Newberry to decide whether to tighten those restrictions. The next step would be a move to ban almost all outdoor watering.
The rain situation on Wednesday will play a large role in the decision, Bridwell said.
The state is so dry, that officials have started asking people in rural areas to put out water for wildlife.
In another development, state and federal officials announced a plan yesterday that will allow farmers with livestock, volunteer fire departments and others to withdraw water from 13 Army Corps of Engineers reservoirs around the state. Managers at each reservoir will decide whether to grant requests, and may charge a fee in some cases.
Caldwell, the state official, noted that high demand for water drops as the temperature cools and the growing season ends.
But, like others who are watching the drought, he's starting to worry about next year. You can't tell much about a drought until it's over. The 1999 drought, for example, was followed by a wet 2000. The drought of 1930 was a prelude to a hot, dry decade.
"If we follow the 1999 model, it's almost over," Caldwell said. "If we follow the 1930 model," it's just beginning.
Reach Andy Mead at (859) 231-3319 or 1-800-950-6397, ext. 3319.